Ano ang Aasahan Kapag Nag-ulat ng Mga Kita ang Skechers, Deckers at VF Corp

When retailers and brands begin reporting their results for the fourth quarter this week, analysts and investors will get a final read on footwear players’ holiday performance — and a glimpse into what their growth trajectories will look like in 2024.

Boot Barn, Skechers and Deckers Brands kick off the retail earnings season this week, followed by VF Corp. and Under Armour next week. Several companies, such as Boot Barn, Crocs, Genesco, On and Wolverine Worldwide, announced updated sales and earnings expectations for the quarter earlier this month at the 2024 ICR conference. Overall, these early reads suggested that holiday results were generally in line with expectations and in some cases, better-than-expected.

“While we believe the discretionary environment is improving, January reads likely prove inconclusive on the state of the consumer given tough, promotionally driven compares,” wrote BTIG analyst Janine Stichter in a Thursday note to investors. “Overall, we look forward to a predictable environment in ’24, with better gross margin control.”

Stichter added that she sees the most risk for VF Corp., which in October rolled out a new plan to transform its business that includes revitalizing its struggling Vans brand. The North Face likely also faced challenges in the most recent quarter due to unseasonably warm weather during the fall/winter season this year, Stichter added.

Other analysts were also tepid about VF’s upcoming report.

“There are no indications that Vans will turnaround in the foreseeable future,” Williams Trading analyst Sam Poser said in a note to investors last week. “VFC is in a tenuous situation.”

Meanwhile, analysts were overall more optimistic about Skechers, which is coming off an exceptionally solid 2023.

“Skechers was one of the best stocks in our coverage in 2023 and we believe it’s poised for another strong year in 2024,” wrote Wedbush analyst Tom Nikic in a note to investors earlier this month, explaining how the brand will benefit from retail companies looking to restock inventories later this year. “We believe the brand continues to exhibit solid momentum, there’s a restocking opportunity in the wholesale channel, margins can keep moving higher, and FX trends have turned more favorable.”

Stifel analyst Jim Duffy said he sees the potential for Skechers to experience double-digit revenue growth in 2024, driven by DTC strength and a wholesale rebound in the Americas. He also noted that the comfort footwear brand’s report will be a indicator for the holiday performance of shoe brands in general.

As for Deckers, analysts agree that the company’s standout Hoka and Ugg brands will likely continue to drive success for the shoe conglomerate. (In November, Hoka was honored with the Brand of the Year award at the 37th annual FN Achievement Awards.)

"Naniniwala kami na ang Deckers ay nananatiling isa sa pinakamalakas na pangunahing kwento sa aming saklaw," sabi ni Nikic ng Wedbush, na binabanggit na inaasahan niya ang isa pang beat-and-raise kapag nag-ulat ang kumpanya ng mga resulta para sa ikatlong quarter nito sa linggong ito. Idinagdag din niya na ang holiday quarter na ito ay ang pinakamahalagang quarter para sa Deckers, "higit sa lahat ay dahil sa seasonality ng Ugg brand (na bumubuo ng halos kalahati ng taunang kita nito sa quarter)."

"Ang magandang balita para sa Deckers ay tila ang parehong mga pangunahing tatak nito, Ugg at Hoka, ay nagkaroon ng malakas na kapaskuhan," sabi niya.

Tulad ng para sa Boot Barn, iniulat ng kumpanya nang mas maaga sa buwang ito na ang mga netong benta sa ikatlong quarter ng piskal na 2024 ay inaasahang magiging $520.4 milyon, tumaas ng 1.1 porsiyento sa parehong oras noong nakaraang taon. Ang netong kita sa bawat diluted na bahagi ay inaasahang nasa o higit pa sa mataas na dulo ng dati nitong inihayag na hanay ng gabay na $1.79.

Sinabi ni Poser na habang ang Boot Barn ay nagkaroon ng malakas na ilang taon, ang kumpanya ay nagsisimulang magpakita ng mga problema na may kaugnayan sa pagpapanatili at pagkahumaling ng customer, lalo na sa mga kababaihan.

"Kinikilala namin ang tagumpay na natanto ng Boot Barn sa nakalipas na 10 taon," isinulat ni Poser sa isang tala mas maaga sa buwang ito. "Gayunpaman, ang taon ng pananalapi 2024 ay nagpapatunay na isang walang kinang na taon, at ang pamamahala ay walang linya ng paningin kung kailan magiging positibo ang maihahambing na mga benta, at ang pagiging produktibo ng bagong tindahan ay bumababa."